Bracketology 4.0: Conference Tournament’s Loom

DSC_3785.jpg
Photo Courtesy of Penn State Athletics                                                                                                            

It’s the last week in April and thus the last week of the regular season for teams across the DI landscape. The ACC tournament starts this week (Doesn’t really mean much) and the rest follow suit next week. Last weekend was big and this weekend is crucial, especially for teams sitting on the verge of getting in or being left out of their conference tournament. Perhaps the biggest conference races are in the NEC and the MAAC where there could be multiple tiebreakers to decide the field, and even the possibility of the entire field having the same conference record. The Big Ten conference race will also be interesting as either Ohio State or Johns Hopkins will not make it in.

With all that ruckus going on it’s time to look at this fourth edition of Bracketology. The bubble is starting to look more clear and things are falling into place. While there is still plenty of uncertainty, the one thing that is certain is that Penn State still sits atop the rest for the time being as the Nittany Lions have been dominate all season long and continue their tear through the college lacrosse world.


ICYMI: 

Third Look: Bracketology 3.0: What’s Going On?

Second Look: Bracketology 2.0: The Field is Still Wide Open

First Look: Bracketology 1.0: Fully Immersed in Conference Play


HOW IT WORKS

As a little refresher for those of you who may not be aware, this is how the NCAA tournament works. 

In the NCAA DI men’s lacrosse tournament there are eight seeded teams and nine teams that are not seeded. Two teams will be in a play-in game and the winner will have to play the number one overall seed in the first round. 

There are nine automatic qualifiers and those nine are all conference champions. Remember, the ACC does not have an AQ because they just have five teams and a conference needs six teams to be given an AQ spot in the NCAA tournament. With nine AQ’s that leaves eight teams that get in as at-large bids. 

Now how does the NCAA selection committee pick teams for at-large bids and seed teams for the tournament? According to the committee they consider a multitude of things. The committee looks at record, strength of schedule index (based on team’s 10 highest rated games), RPI results, average RPI wins and losses, head-to-head results, record against ranked teams (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, and 21+), significant wins and losses, location of games, results versus common opponents, and any polls do not matter. 

PREDICTED AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS 

When looking at who the automatic qualifiers could be, conference record is used and not highest RPI rank. However, in the case that some teams have the same conference record then RPI will be used.

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
America East Albany 5-7 4-1 42 32
Big East Villanova 8-5 3-1 13 4
Big Ten Penn State 11-1 4-0 1 10
CAA Towson 8-4 3-1 11 9
Ivy League Penn 8-3 6-0 4 6
MAAC Marist 7-6 5-1 36 43
Patriot League Loyola 10-3 6-1 6 11
NEC Hobart 10-3 4-1 24 70
SoCon Richmond 8-5 5-1 26 35

Data From LaxBytes – 4/24


POSSIBLE AT-LARGE SELECTIONS

Again, there are still so many teams that have a very good case at this point to be at-large bids. While we have started to see a little more clarity, anything can happen on any day and that is part of what makes this sport so great. 

For this section the next 16 possible at-large candidates will be listed. Again, the number of teams displayed here has shrunk from 20 to 16 as we have gotten deeper into the season and things look more clear now. Also, those last few don’t have much of a shot unless they win their conference anyway. 

Those next four teams are: High Point, Rutgers, Hobart, and Princeton

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
ACC Duke 11-3 2-2 2 1
Big Ten Maryland 11-2 3-1 3 12
Ivy League Yale 9-2 4-1 5 15
ACC Syracuse 9-3 2-2 7 7
ACC Virginia 11-3 3-1 8 8
Big Ten Ohio State 8-3 1-3 9 16
ACC Notre Dame 7-5 2-2 10 2
Ivy League Cornell 9-4 3-2 11 5
Big Ten Johns Hopkins 6-6 2-2 14 3
Big East Denver 8-4 3-1 15 18
Patriot League Army 9-4 5-3 16 28
Big East Georgetown 10-4 2-2 17 29
SoCon Air Force 9-4 5-1 18 31
Patriot League Boston U. 10-4 5-2 19 34
CAA UMass 9-4 3-1 20 38
ACC North Carolina 7-6 1-3 21 14

Data From LaxBytes – 4/24


Bids Per Conference

Before getting into what I think the bracket could look like at this time, let’s take a look at how many bids each conference could receive. There are a few conference that are sure to get 3-4 bids while other may get two at the most depending on what happens in the conference tournament. Some of the bottom conferences will obviously only get that one AQ bid as usual. 

ACC – Four Bids 

Big Ten – Three Bids

Ivy League – Two/Three Bids

Patriot League – One/Two Bids

Big East – One/Two Bids

CAA – One Bid

SoCon – One Bid

NEC – One Bid

MAAC – One Bid

America East – One Bid 


Projected Bracket 4.0

This was very tough as it’s difficult enough to pick the teams, but then to seed and place them is even more difficult. I used the criteria that the NCAA selection committee uses was used as beast as I could to put this bracket together. 

While the hardest part was picking the at-large teams and seeding the top eight, it was even harder picking who to leave out at the moment. Even with what transpired last weekend, there are still teams that you could make a very strong case for getting in and vice versa. 

Last Four In: Yale, Notre Dame, Army, Denver 

First Four Out: Cornell, Johns Hopkins, North Carolina, Ohio State 

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-24 at 7.41.11 PM

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Bracketology 3.0: What’s Going On?

gerard-arceri-penn-state-john-strohsacker.jpg
Photo Credit: John Strohsacker/US Lacrosse Magazine                                                                                

After the first weekend in April we still don’t have much clarity in a lot of the conference races, but we do have a good idea in some. Last weekend was crazy as there were upsets everywhere.

Today, we sit less than a month away from Selection Sunday and things are winding down and heating up at the same time. It’s an exciting time to be involved in the sport no matter what. But now, let’s get to some bracketology.


ICYMI: 

Last week: Bracketology 2.0: The Field is Still Wide Open

Two Weeks Ago: Bracketology 1.0: Fully Immersed in Conference Play


HOW IT WORKS

As a little refresher for those of you who may not be aware, this is how the NCAA tournament works. 

In the NCAA DI men’s lacrosse tournament there are eight seeded teams and nine teams that are not seeded. Two teams will be in a play-in game and the winner will have to play the number one overall seed in the first round. 

There are nine automatic qualifiers and those nine are all conference champions. Remember, the ACC does not have an AQ because they just have five teams and a conference needs six teams to be given an AQ spot in the NCAA tournament. With nine AQ’s that leaves eight teams that get in as at-large bids. 

Now how does the NCAA selection committee pick teams for at-large bids and seed teams for the tournament? According to the committee they consider a multitude of things. The committee looks at record, strength of schedule index (based on team’s 10 highest rated games), RPI results, average RPI wins and losses, head-to-head results, record against ranked teams (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, and 21+), significant wins and losses, location of games, results versus common opponents, and any polls do not matter. 

PREDICTED AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS 

When looking at who the automatic qualifiers could be, conference record is used and not highest RPI rank. However, in the case that some teams have the same conference record then RPI will be used.

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
America East Vermont 7-4 4-1 44 57
Big East Villanova 7-5 2-1 11 6
Big Ten Penn Sate 10-1 3-0 1 11
CAA Delaware 10-2 3-0 28 61
Ivy League Penn 7-3 5-0 2 4
MAAC Marist 7-5 5-1 37 46
Patriot League Loyola 9-3 5-1 9 10
NEC Mount St. Mary’s 8-5 4-0 39 45
SoCon Air Force 8-4 4-1 19 28

Data From LaxBytes – 4/17


POSSIBLE AT-LARGE SELECTIONS

Again, there are still so many teams that have a very good case at this point to be at-large bids. While we have started to see a little more clarity, anything can happen on any day and that is part of what makes this sport so great. 

For this section 20 possible at-large candidates will be listed. Again, the number of teams displayed here will likely shrink as we get closer to Selection Sunday. 

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
ACC Duke 10-3 2-2 3 1
ACC Syracuse 8-3 2-2 4 9
Ivy League Yale 8-2 4-1 5 22
ACC Virginia 10-3 3-1 6 7
Big Ten Ohio State 8-2 1-2 7 24
Big Ten Maryland 10-2 2-1 8 18
ACC Notre Dame 6-5 1-2 10 2
CAA Towson 7-4 2-1 12 15
Big Ten Johns Hopkins 6-5 2-1 13 5
Ivy League Cornell 8-4 2-2 14 3
Big East Denver 7-4 2-1 15 23
Big East Georgetown 9-4 2-2 16 29
Patriot League Army 9-3 5-2 17 30
ACC North Carolina 7-5 1-2 18 14
Patriot League Boston U. 9-4 4-2 20 27
CAA UMass 8-4 2-1 21 31
Big Ten Rutgers 6-6 1-2 22 12
SoCon High Point 10-2 4-1 23 32
SoCon Richmond 7-5 4-1 24 52
Ivy League Princeton 6-6 3-3 25 21

Data From LaxBytes – 4/17


Projected Bracket 3.0

This was very tough as it’s difficult enough to pick the teams, but then to seed and place them is even more difficult. I used the criteria that the NCAA selection committee uses was used as beast as I could to put this bracket together. 

While the hardest part was picking the at-large teams and seeding the top eight, it was even harder picking who to leave out at the moment. Even with what transpired last weekend, there are still teams that you could make a very strong case for getting in and vice versa. At the moment it looks like Denver is the last team in while Johns Hopkins is the first team out. 

Things last weekend changed some things, especially in the Patriot League. But there is still plenty of season left, and not to mention conference tournament’s can get crazy. This field seems still pretty wide open and numerous different teams can make serious jumps from now until Selection Sunday. 

Screen Shot 2019-04-17 at 8.20.45 AM

 

Last Four In: Yale, Ohio State, Cornell, Denver

First Four Out: Johns Hopkins, Rutgers, North Carolina, Army


Bracketology Show

For more college lacrosse bracketology check out our weekly bracketology show that will be out ever Wednesday at 10pm on YouTube

Bracketology 2.0: The Field is Still Wide Open

m_lacros_auto_original_10227360
Photo Courtesy of Penn State Athletics                                                                                                            

The first weekend in April has passed and we are now under a month away from Selection Sunday. Even with that, the field looks as wide open as ever. 

All conferences are now fully emerged in conference play and things are looking a bit clearer in some conferences than other. Either way it’s time to dive into some bracketology. 


ICYMI: Bracketology 1.0: Fully Immersed in Conference Play


HOW IT WORKS

As a little refresher for those of you who may not be aware, this is how the NCAA tournament works. 

In the NCAA DI men’s lacrosse tournament there are eight seeded teams and nine teams that are not seeded. Two teams will be in a play-in game and the winner will have to play the number one overall seed in the first round. 

There are nine automatic qualifiers and those nine are all conference champions. Remember, the ACC does not have an AQ because they just have five teams and a conference needs six teams to be given an AQ spot in the NCAA tournament. With nine AQ’s that leaves eight teams that get in as at-large bids. 

Now how does the NCAA selection committee pick teams for at-large bids and seed teams for the tournament? According to the committee they consider a multitude of things. The committee looks at record, strength of schedule index (based on team’s 10 highest rated games), RPI results, average RPI wins and losses, head-to-head results, record against ranked teams (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, and 21+), significant wins and losses, location of games, results versus common opponents, and any polls do not matter. 

PREDICTED AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS 

Since every conference is now fully in conference play we can start looking at conference record and not highest RPI to predict the nine automatic qualifiers. However, some teams do have the same conference record and in that case RPI will be the deciding factor. 

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
America East Vermont 6-4 3-1 38 50
Big East Villanova 7-4 2-0 11 5
Big Ten Penn State 9-1 2-0 1 8
CAA Towson 7-3 2-0 13 13
Ivy League Penn 6-3 4-0 3 2
MAAC Detroit Mercy 7-3 4-1 39 63
Patriot League Loyola 9-2 5-0 4 7
NEC Mount St. Mary’s 7-5 3-0 34 40
SoCon Richmond 7-2 4-0 22 29

Data from LaxBytes – RPI Rankings From 4/10


POSSIBLE AT-LARGE SELECTIONS

Again, there are still so many teams that have a very good case at this point to be at-large bids. In time we will hopefully see more clarity, but remember there are nothing is handed to anybody in college lacrosse. Anything can happen on any day and that is part of what makes this sport so great. 

For this section 20 possible at-large candidates will be listed. Again, the number of teams displayed here will likely shrink as we get closer to Selection Sunday. 

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
ACC Virginia 9-2 3-0 2 4
ACC Duke 9-3 1-2 5 3
ACC Syracuse 7-3 1-2 6 9
Big Ten Maryland 9-2 1-1 7 19
Ivy League Yale 7-2 3-1 8 18
ACC Notre Dame 5-4 1-2 9 1
Big Ten Ohio State 7-2 0-2 10 20
Big Ten Johns Hopkins 6-4 2-0 12 6
Big East Denver 6-4 1-1 14 14
Ivy League Cornell 7-4 2-2 15 11
Patriot League Lehigh 7-4 5-1 16 21
ACC North Carolina 7-4 1-1 17 22
Big Ten Rutgers 6-5 1-1 18 16
Big East Georgetown 8-4 1-2 19 24
SoCon High Point 9-2 3-1 20 42
Patriot League Army 8-3 4-2 21 30
SoCon Air Force 7-4 3-1 23 31
Ivy League Princeton 5-6 0-3 24 17
Patriot League Boston U. 8-4 3-2 25 35
CAA UMass 7-4 1-1 26 37

Data from LaxBytes – RPI Rankings From 4/10


Who’s Out?

Still, not many teams are mathematically  out but there are those who are out by rule or you just know are not going be dancing in May. 

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
Independent Hampton 4-4 73 73
Independent NJIT 2-10 70 54
America East Binghamton 0-9 0-3 62 62
MAAC St. Bonaventure 0-11 0-6 65 36

Data from LaxBytes – RPI Rankings From 4/10


PROJECTED BRACKET 1.0

This was very tough as it’s difficult enough to pick the teams, but then to seed and place them is even more difficult. I used the criteria that the NCAA selection committee uses was used as beast as I could to put this bracket together. 

While the hardest part was picking the at-large teams and seeding the top eight, it was even harder picking who to leave out at the moment. Even with what transpired last weekend, there are still teams that you could make a very strong case for getting in and vice versa. At the moment it looks like Denver remains the last team out while Johns Hopkins has moved into the spot as the last team in. Some other movements include Yale being on the last four in list when I had them as the #3 seed last week and Ohio State moving from the last four out list to the last four in list. 

Things last weekend changed some things, especially in the Patriot League. But there is still plenty of season left, and not to mention conference tournament’s can get crazy. This field seems still pretty wide open and numerous different teams can make serious jumps from now until Selection Sunday. 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 2.42.07 AM

Last Four In: Duke, Ohio State, Yale, Johns Hopkins

First Four Out: Rutgers, Lehigh, Cornell, Denver

 

The Bracketology Show: Episode 1.0

The Bracketology show will run on every Wednesday from now until the NCAA brackets are released on Selection Sunday. In the show Tanner Demling breaks down his recent bracketology predictions and highlights teams and matchups that you should be watching in every conference. 

In this first episode of The Bracketology Show, Tanner breaks down his first bracketology predictions and looks at some teams that may be on the bubble now and teams that could be as we get deeper into conference play.

You can watch The Bracketology Show on YouTube or Facebook. You can also listen to it through Podcast on any of the various outlets where you can find Lacrosse Bucket Podcast. 

YouTube
Podcast

https://anchor.fm/lacrosse-bucket/embed/episodes/Bracketology-Show-1-0-e3kucv

Apple Podcast          Spotify

Google Podcast       Podbean

Breaker                    Radio Public

Pocket Cast             Castbox 

Overcast

 

 

Bracketology 1.0: Fully Immersed in Conference Play

Ament_2_15_19-1
Photo Courtesy of Penn State Athletics                                                                                                            

* Note: Team records have been updated after Tuesday’s games but RPI rankings are as they were before the games on Tuesday*

We have hit April and that means we are just about five weeks away from the start of the NCAA tournament. While it is still plenty early, conference play is fully underway and it’s time into get into some Bracketology. 

How it Works

With this being the first bracketology post of the 2019 here is a little refresher of how the NCAA tournament works for those of you who may not be familiar or have forgotten. In the NCAA DI men’s lacrosse tournament there are eight seeded teams and nine teams that are not seeded. Two teams will be in a play-in game and the winner will have to play the number one overall seed in the first round. 

There are nine automatic qualifiers and those nine are all conference champions. Remember, the ACC does not have an AQ because they just have five teams and a conference needs six teams to be given an AQ spot in the NCAA tournament. With nine AQ’s that leaves eight teams that get in as at-large bids. 

Now how does the NCAA selection committee pick teams for at-large bids and seed teams for the tournament? According to the committee they consider a multitude of things. The committee looks at record, strength of schedule index (based on team’s 10 highest rated games), RPI results, average RPI wins and losses, head-to-head results, record against ranked teams (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, and 21+), significant wins and losses, location of games, results versus common opponents, and any polls do not matter. 

Predicted Automatic Qualifiers 

Since there are still some teams that just have one conference game under their belt it makes no sense to go by best conference record for all conferences at this time. After this weekend we will know more and can start going off of conference record. Instead RPI will be the deciding factor in predicting AQ’s for this weeks bracketology. Yes, doing it this way has it’s flaws but next week we will be using conference record which makes much more sense going forward.

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
America East Vermont 5-4 2-1 40 51
Big East Villanova 6-4 1-0 13 6
Big Ten Penn State 8-1 1-0 1 11
CAA Towson 6-3 1-0 11 10
Ivy League Yale 6-2 2-1 2 3
MAAC Siena 5-3 3-1 28 46
Patriot League Loyola 7-2 4-0 8 16
NEC Hobart 8-2 2-0 21 52
SoCon High Point 8-2 2-1 23 57

Data from LaxBytes – RPI Rankings From 4/2


Possible At-Large Selections

It’s going to be an interesting to see the at-large selections on selection Sunday because of how many teams have and will have beaten each other by then. For this section 20 possible at-large candidates will be listed, and that number may shrink to 12-16 as we get closer to selection Sunday. 

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
ACC Virginia 8-2 2-0 3 7
ACC Notre Dame 5-3 1-1 4 1
Ivy League Penn 5-3 3-0 5 2
Big Ten Maryland 8-2 0-1 6 13
Big Ten Ohio State 7-1 0-1 7 21
ACC Duke 8-3 0-2 9 5
ACC Syracuse 5-3 1-2 10 4
Ivy League Cornell 6-3 1-2 12 12
Big East Denver 6-3 1-0 14 14
Big Ten Johns Hopkins 5-4 1-0 15 8
Big Ten Rutgers 6-4 1-0 16 17
Patriot League Army 8-2 4-1 17 35
CAA UMass 7-3 1-0 18 23
Patriot League Lehigh 7-3 5-0 19 27
ACC North Carolina 7-3 1-0 20 30
Big East Georgetown 7-3 0-2 22 42
SoCon Air Force 7-3 3-0 24 24
Patriot League Colgate 3-6 1-3 25 9
SoCon Richmond 6-4 3-0 26 32
Patriot League Boston U. 7-4 2-2 27 36

Data from LaxBytes – RPI Rankings From 4/2


Anybody Out?

At the moment no team with a conference affiliation is officially out as anything can certainly happen. But there are teams that you pretty much know are surely going to miss the NCAA tournament or that aren’t eligible. Most of these teams aren’t necessarily out of contention but they are surely hanging onto the edge of the cliff right now. 

Conference Team Record Conference Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
Independent Hampton 4-3 73 73
Independent NJIT 1-10 69 53
America East Binghamton 0-8 0-2 68 50
MAAC St. Bonaventure 0-9 0-5 60 20

Data from LaxBytes – RPI Rankings From 4/2


Projected Bracket 1.0

This was very tough as it’s difficult enough to pick the teams, but then to seed and place them is even more difficult. I used the criteria that the NCAA selection committee uses was used as beast as I could to put this bracket together. 

While the hardest part was picking the at-large teams and seeding the top eight, it was even harder picking who to leave out at the moment. There are for sure about seven teams that you could say are on the bubble or could make a case to get in. At the moment it looks like Denver is the last team out an Lehigh is the last team in. While things can and will change, the bubble looks weak this year due to everybody beating everybody. There is no bonafide top team this year and that just makes everything difficult. 

There is still a lot of lacrosse to play so things will change over the coming weeks and hopefully more clarity will be provided. 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-03 at 3.20.55 AM

 

 

Last Four In: Duke, Penn, Cornell, Lehigh

First Four Out: Denver, Johns Hopkins, Rutgers, Ohio State

 

Lacrosse Bucket Bracketology: Part 2

Photo Credit: Associated Press

   We are back with another Bracketology post. There has been a whole bunch of action since we released out Bracketology Part 1 last week. This week there will be a few teams that are different, but there are quite a few teams that have stayed put. I can really see this thing getting wild as we get closer to conference tournament time.

Seeds

1. Albany (America East Winner)*
2. Maryland (B1G Winner)*
3. Syracuse (ACC Winner)
4. Johns Hopkins 
5. Rutgers
6. Yale (Ivy Winner)*
7. Loyola
8. Denver (Big East Winner)*
(*) = automatic qualifier

Non Seeded Teams

Cornell
Virginia
Duke
Bryant (NEC Winner)*
UMass (CAA Winner)*
Notre Dame
Bucknell (Patriot League Winner)*
Quinnipiac (MAAC Winner)*
Jacksonville (SoCon Winner)*
(*) = automatic qualifier

Bubble Teams

Vermont

      Vermont still only has one loss on the season. Again, if Vermont can beat Virginia and make it to the America East championship I can still see them getting an at large bid over some other teams.

Lehigh
Villanova
Harvard
Navy

Projected Bracket



Lacrosse Bucket Bracketology: Part 1

Cornell Athletics

  It’s Bracketology time! It is really crazy that we are already to this point in the season, but we are. So, there are obviously teams that are looking great right now and teams that aren’t looking so great. This will be based off of if the season ended right now. So, the bracket will reflect right now and we will see changes as we get closer to selection Sunday.
Also, there are a few bubble teams that could possibly jump in and grab a spot as we move from week to week.

   In the NCAA DI Men’s Lacrosse tournament there are 17 teams in all, 16 after play in game, 9 of those teams will be automatic qualifiers and 8 teams will be at large qualifiers. The automatic qualifiers are teams that win their conference and at large teams will be teams that have a good enough resume to get in. Now, you will notice that the ACC winner is technically not an automatic qualifier because they don’t have six teams in their conference. 

Seeds

1. Albany (America East Winner)*
2. Maryland (B1G Winner)*
3. Syracuse (ACC Winner)
4. Villanova (Big East Winner)*
5. Johns Hopkins
6. Notre Dame
7. Yale (Ivy Winner)*
8. Rutgers
(*) = automatic qualifier

Non Seeded Teams

Cornell
Penn
Duke
Bryant (NEC Winner)*
UMass (CAA Winner)*
Loyola
Bucknell (Patriot League Winner)*
Canisius (MAAC Winner)*
Furman (SoCon Winner)*

(*) = automatic qualifier

Bubble Teams

Vermont
Lehigh
Denver
Harvard
Hofstra
Delaware

Virginia

   Vermont has only one loss but they have beaten everyone else. Their one loss is in conference to Albany. Albany is undefeated, so I think if Vermont beats Virginia in a few weeks and runs through the rest of their conference they have a good case. Now, if they loose to Virginia they are out. 
   Lehigh is interesting because they are in that crazy Patriot League. Literally, it is a mess over there. I think if Lehigh gets to their conference championship game they can get in. Especially if they beat Bucknell in the last regular season game and Loyola on Saturday. 
   Denver just has to win the Big East. That is how plain and simple that is. They play Villanova tonight and whoever wins that will have an upper hand. Now, if Villanova wins tonight but then loses another conference game and Denver just has that Villanova loss in conference then Denver is in. 
   Harvard is looking at being in the Ivy League tournament. They are in that middle pack with Penn and Brown. I think Harvard can make the Ivy tournament and they could at least get to the championship game. If that happens then I think they get in over Penn. Also, if they beat Penn in the regular season they are in. 
Hofstra and Delaware are going to be two contenders for the CAA championship. I think whoever wins the regular season game between these two will have the upper hand in getting into the tournament. Especially if neither wins the CAA.

Virginia will have to win an ACC game this year to get in. They play North Carolina this weekend and if they can win that game they should be able to get into the ACC tournament. That alone should get them into the NCAA tournament.

Projected Bracket